Should I Buy a House in Florida Now

What the numbers say about the market today

Three numbers describe the state as of this writing:

• All homes: $375,361, down 0.9 percent in a year, up 18.6 percent in five years.
• Single-family homes: $396,809.
• Condos: $262,592, down 3.9 percent in a year.

The chart on this page shows the shape: values rose fast through 2021 and 2022, levelled off, and have drifted lower since 2024. Statewide, that is a slow cooling, with condos weakening faster than houses. I can describe what the data shows. Nobody can tell you where prices go next, and you should be wary of anyone who claims to.

About the crash headlines

Many people searching this question have read headlines about a Florida housing crash. The statewide data shows a decline of less than 1 percent over a year for all homes. Condos, at 3.9 percent down, are where the softness is concentrated, and the main reasons are specific to them: Florida's post-Surfside condo law, which requires structural inspections and fully funded reserves, and higher master insurance premiums. Those costs pushed up fees and special assessments in many older buildings, and some owners sold.

For a house buyer, that means a market with more listings to choose from and sellers who are more willing to pay closing costs or fix inspection items. For a condo buyer, it means bargains exist, but many low prices reflect real costs in the building. Read the association's inspection, reserve study and minutes before treating a condo price as a deal.

The personal questions that decide it

When a buyer asks me whether now is the time, I ask them back:

• How long will you own it. Buying and selling both carry transaction costs. The longer you hold, the less the timing of the purchase matters.
• Can you carry the full monthly cost. Mortgage, property tax at the post-sale assessment, homeowners and flood insurance, HOA or CDD, and maintenance. In Florida, insurance and taxes can move the total more than the price does.
• Is this your permanent home. A homestead brings up to $51,411 off assessed value in 2026 and caps increases at 3 percent or inflation. A second home gets no exemption and a 10 percent cap on non-school levies.
• Do you need to move for a reason the market will not change. A job, family or retirement date often settles the question.

Interest rates are part of the monthly number. A buyer who purchases at today’s rates can refinance later if rates fall, as long as their income, credit and the home’s value support it. The purchase price, the closing costs and the tax assessment set at the sale stay with you. That is why I put more weight on buying the right house at a fair price than on guessing the rate cycle.

If the monthly number works and you expect to stay several years, the timing of a flat market matters less than finding the right house.

Houses and condos are moving at different speeds

The statewide gap between single-family homes at $396,809 and condos at $262,592 has widened as condo values fell faster. That gap shows up in city data too. In Tampa, the typical value for all homes is $375,619 against $194,297 for condos; in Orlando it is $372,775 against $170,712; in Sarasota $410,998 against $263,924.

For a house buyer, the main costs to price are the roof, insurance and the property tax reset. For a condo buyer, the building's finances come first: whether its milestone inspection is done, whether its Structural Integrity Reserve Study is funded, and whether a special assessment is on the way. A well-run condo in a building that has finished its repairs can be a sound purchase in this market. A cheap unit in a building that has not faced its repairs yet can turn out expensive.

If you are deciding between the two, compare full monthly costs side by side. The condo fee often includes building insurance, water and exterior upkeep that a house buyer pays separately.

Where conditions differ inside Florida

Statewide figures blend very different places. County values from Zillow run from $166,734 in Calhoun County in the Panhandle to $962,885 in Monroe County, the Keys. A few markers in between:

• Duval (Jacksonville area): $294,079.
• Polk (Lakeland area): $295,509.
• Lee (Fort Myers and Cape Coral): $334,485.
• Hillsborough (Tampa): $375,501.
• Orange (Orlando): $400,964.
• Broward: $422,344. Palm Beach: $475,754. Miami-Dade: $523,240.

A buyer moving within budget can often pick a county where the money goes much further. Look at each local market's own trend before deciding, since the coastal condo markets and the inland single-family markets have not moved together.

What buyers can negotiate in a cooler market

• Price, especially on homes that have been listed for a while or have known issues.
• Seller-paid closing costs, within your lender's limits.
• Repairs or credits for items found in the inspection, the 4-point or the wind mitigation report, such as an older roof.
• Who pays condo special assessments, using the checkbox on the standard condo rider.
• Longer inspection periods, so you have time to get insurance quotes and read condo documents.

None of this requires guessing where prices are headed. It only requires knowing what the house will cost to own and having your financing, inspection and insurance quotes lined up before the offer, so you can move quickly when the right listing appears.

Two open items for late 2026

Two things are unresolved at the time of writing, and both affect owners:

• Amendment 3 on the November 3, 2026 ballot would change property tax rules for homestead and non-homestead property. It needs 60 percent to pass. Until the result is in, use the current rules in your budget and treat any change as a possible bonus or adjustment.
• Insurance costs remain the biggest variable for coastal homes. Get real quotes on the address during the inspection period instead of using an average.

This isn't financial, legal or tax advice. If you tell me your budget, the area you are considering and how long you plan to stay, I can put together a shortlist and run the full monthly cost for each home on it.